Authenticity and sustainability of economic recovery in the end how

 Authenticity and sustainability of economic recovery in the end how?
Fu Yong / text
question: the authenticity and sustainability of economic recovery in the end how? the mainstream view that economic fundamentals continued to improve the situation have been established, the economic recovery is in full swing, authenticity and sustainability, there is no problem. workers Ministry of the latest prediction is that industrial output growth will further accelerate in the third quarter year on year increase of 11.5% may be the annual growth rate of about 11% -12%, and 12.9% growth last year, basically the same. As the industrial added value accounted for 45% of GDP, and therefore in the first half of the second half on the basis of GDP growth is expected to accelerate. In addition, companies from the coast employment situation, the obvious signs of recovery in the export sector.
This could be just half the story . The author has previously written that the data from the macro point of view, the economy really is staged V-reversal; but revived impetus came mainly from government departments to promote, endogenous growth momentum and to take over the recovery of the baton, and, micro- With corporate earnings is not the same macroeconomic indicators of the reversal rate of improvement. which constitutes the other half of the story of recovery.
implementation of China's massive stimulus plan has been long in October, and now there are signs that 4 trillion of investment stimulating effect has begun to decline. Standard Chartered Bank has found that the effectiveness of China's fiscal policy to stimulate a substantial weakening in the second quarter of this year: the second quarter of fiscal stimulus to the economic growth rate was 0.3 percentage points in July or will continue to shrink; that China's fiscal policy may now be closer to neutral, rather than stimulating.
investment-driven recovery, in fact exacerbated the economic imbalances, increasing their risk of exposure to a series of hidden. Recently the problem of excess capacity surface This is just a series of questions.
eight goals this year's economic security will be smoothly; in this context, the policy of the future greater emphasis on high investment patterns adjust. for these adjustments is more than six months to stimulate the relaxation after the overwhelming variety of possible hidden risks. Following the sharp contraction of credit in July after the August credit growth does not appear to be significant rebound. the trend of monetary policy seems to be only the tip of the iceberg. Recently, the CBRC on the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks has been tightened, two sets of mortgage has also been more rigorous implementation; Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and other ministries stressed the risk of overcapacity.
in large-scale investment to achieve the desired effect, it is now considering the economy right time its a return to growth. People in the consideration, once the funds run out of government stimulus, economic recovery will go. the central level of information disclosure is very cautious efforts to relax once, the problem may be repeated. from existing information see, government is unlikely to introduce a new large-scale investment programs, but to start the recovery of endogenous engines, and is sustainable. see from the recent policy developments,
world in fact face similar economic difficulties. France, Germany, Japan and other major economies recover earlier than expected economic growth, the U.S. economy will soon recover. But this did not bring much excitement to the market. have a lot of evidence that global economic recovery will be slow. With U.S. consumers to cut debt and rebuild the retirement savings will last for many years they have just stepped into the austerity of the trip. global recession unusual breadth and synchronization, will prevent the growth of demand for U.S. exports as a new growth engine.
In my opinion, initially identified in the economic growth target to reach the circumstances, the policy focus is shifting. These changes mean that the policy side hoped to enhance the quality and sustainability of economic recovery , even if doing so would sacrifice some of the growth rate. In the short term, even for industrial overcapacity continues to invest, would create GDP, but the policy face no longer aware of investing in these areas of inefficiency. It would some effect of economic recovery.
momentum if the economy can not develop spontaneous late, even if the Chinese economy is looking very good recovery, the policy will not climb down. Development and Reform Commission and other departments of the deepening reform, structural adjustment series of measures. These measures undoubtedly correct direction, but mainly the framework of nature. policy should be to gradually enrich the surface, this might be the main theme of the future.
The market is increasingly dominated after half of the story . all good had all expected to be taken into account, the policy does appear inflection point can not be underestimated. in the short term to achieve the objective, the policy side more attention to long-term goal is reasonable. stimulant gradually decreased the efficacy of long-term health of the economy also came, this is a good thing.