Financial crisis on China is a historic opportunity
Time: October 21, 2008 07:27:39 How do the financial network
intensified by the United States triggered a worldwide financial crisis? The U.S. financial crisis on China opportunity or disaster? different conclusions will produce different responses, different measures will yield different results. but this is at a critical moment of China's economic rise, it is essential.
China historic opportunity for the economic rise depends on the emergence and the ability to seize the opportunity, and neither is dispensable. the face of the U.S. financial crisis and economic recession, a major historical opportunity might be thanks to the widespread, today's China than any other country and ever more with the ability to seize this opportunity, which, we should remain sober-minded.
one, is an opportunity rather than a disaster
1, China's monetary system, banking system and capital market system independent . Looking at the current international economic situation, due to the characteristics of financial integration, the developed countries, the crisis made the United States of Europe, Japan, Canada and other developed countries but a few. China is a little less affected by the crisis, the relative exposure to U.S. financial crisis outside, and can in this crisis, big countries can seize the initiative.
As China monetary system, capital markets and commercial banking system on the system are relatively independent, and the developed countries represented by the United States is not directly related to , which makes our commercial banking and capital markets and the U.S. subprime mortgage has not been too much of the financial crisis, Conger from China's macro-and micro-economic fundamentals are still good. both in the reform and opening up 30 years, or since the financial crisis in the United States, the Chinese economy continues to average annual growth of 10%, this growth did not because the United States in recent years economic recession in developed economies are affected. Even in the United States suffered under the impact of financial crisis, China's macro-economic growth and the performance of domestic enterprises increased micro-surface is still good. So the world economic recession has been called an oasis in the desert , with a strong ability to open up domestic markets and strong economic development potential.
3, our current fiscal and financial condition. and the international financial crisis in major developed countries experienced different characteristics: condition of the assets from the bank to see We have 46 trillion yuan total assets of savings banks, of which nearly 18 trillion of household savings, deposits and loans of about 12 trillion difference, capital is relatively abundant. this year, although the enterprise funds generally tight, but that is due to double-tight macro-policy decisions. Once we used to meet the lenient policy of financial crisis, it will have sufficient liquidity characteristics. Meanwhile, after a major commercial banks since 2005 listed, governance structure has also been a big improvement, therefore, banks Asset quality is also good. from the foreign exchange reserves of view, 1.8 trillion of reserves makes this financial crisis we face has enough self-protection capability and capacity to respond. from the state revenue, up to 5.1 trillion yuan in 2007 revenue, can we have the ability to protect themselves in this crisis.
4, China has the huge domestic market development potential.'s exports to China will have some impact, but China's 1.3 billion population and huge domestic demand market is the world unmatched in any other country, even in the United States in the context of financial crisis, while U.S. consumption regression make China's exports are subject to certain restrictions, but the huge domestic market, if passed loose monetary policy and fiscal policy started is completely compensate for export by domestic demand dropped. From an investment point, China's vast infrastructure of towns and cities a large number of projects require funding, promote economic development. either from the supply of funds or from the choice of projects, there are more Great potential. we deal with the ability of U.S. financial crisis is enough.
It is in this understanding, the international public opinion to China as a world economic recession The new leader, and the United States and other developed countries stand together to deal with the crisis. Some multinational companies and entrepreneurs to China as a safe haven to avoid the financial crisis and comparative selection of the best investments, their optimistic about China invest in China. At the same time, from the U.S. financial crisis triggered by the global crisis will inevitably bring about a global industry restructuring and new division of labor, China's migrant workers from low-end manufacturing and service industries to the high end of the financial restructuring.
In summary, this global
present the world hope that we can helping hand extended to the United States, this time we should also fulfill the Responsibilities, to show we stand together the world's major countries tide over the crisis of the gesture, grasp the historical opportunity, from their own actual conditions to find win-win Moshi.
Although China's huge foreign exchange reserves, bought almost half of U.S. Treasury bonds and the two Fang bonds, but the current U.S. Liangguo there are still some who believe that China should continue to approach help the United States to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds to save the market and the United States increase the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds or direct the use of sovereign investment funds to corporate China to ; outside save China, Xiangbang ship, crisis does not negate the securities finance led to the capital market-based development trend of the modern financial system, commercial banks, the indirect financing and direct financing of the capital market will be to promote future economic development of China's two wheels. If the United States The crisis originated in the blind innovative financial derivatives and over-development, then today's China, financial sector development, especially in the development of direct financing of the capital market situation is still not enough. Therefore, China in which the financial stage of development and the United States is completely different, we must develop.
Second, the stock market is both a country's economic, social and political conditions barometer, is related to the status of a country's social stability, the most sensitive monitor. the face of the U.S. financial crisis , despite the fact that the opportunities in China than disaster, but why do people feel they are in the meantime? One important reason is because of China's stock market continued to slump over the past year, and the rate of decline far more than the United States. Why is China's national economic development of the world economy recession, an oasis in the desert, while China's stock market is the world's stock markets fell in Zhongzai Hu do?
the stock market in this state great harm in the long run. The first will be joint and several commercial banks, single leg financing of social responsibility, repeat the high rate of bad debts in 2005, there is systemic risk in the old rut. Second, the stock market plummeting, our economy will adversely affect the entity, which also in this year's fourth quarter and next year have been incidents . if not promptly take steps to activate the stock market, could lead to financial and other industries, the virtual economy and real economy into a vicious cycle, fall into this global economic catastrophe.
Obviously, both from the U.S. financial crisis rescue point of view, or from China's own need to vigorously develop the capital market for direct financing of demand, should revive the stock market from the start, active stock market, and inspired confidence. from the capital markets start to seize the opportunity. as long as stock prices in China and the United States to find a different The main reason the right remedy, you can more efficiently and quickly out of the decadent Bureau.
Fourth, China's stock market fell out of the U.S. financial crisis is the error
since October last year, China's stock market crash happens and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis Overseas stock markets fell as a result of agreement in time. the stock market decline in accidental coincidence, so often the reason the Chinese stock market fell and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis together, creating a market panic.
However, careful analysis of the Chinese stock market continued this year by U.S. stock market crash and the impact of the subprime crisis entirely different reason for the decline. decline in U.S. capital markets is the result of a U.S. recession and financial crisis, the subprime crisis caused a series of related issues. The Chinese stock market which a period of good macro-economic side, the quality of listed companies and micro-performance surface in the split share structure reform have been greatly enhanced after the last two years, 50% performance rate continues to increase, the U.S. stock market crash does not have any fundamental conditions. Meanwhile, China's stock market and the U.S. stock market system is not directly related to, the risk is not directly related to the A-share market, although from the appearance point of view, the two fall in the stock market are caused by a lack of confidence, but the U.S. investor lack of confidence caused by the laws of the market itself. The lack of investor confidence in China is artificially caused by the policy. In China, the impact of policy factors on the stock market factors than the market itself is much greater. Over the past year, China Like the stock market not only with the U.S. stock market fell, but still worse than the United States fall, whether the U.S. stock market is up is down, the Chinese stock market is down, the U.S. stock market decline, but has also dropped by 30%, while China's stock market fell more than 65 %, therefore, must drop out of the stock market is affected by U.S. financial crisis in error. the decline in the Chinese stock market is not affected by the United States, but has a special intrinsic reason.
five primary factor in the stock market is down listed companies in the listing prospectus said the temporarily non-tradable shares in circulation, leading investors into the market at high prices. In view of non-tradable state shares to enter the circulation, the outstanding shares of stock will be driven down, so the stock price to change is through non-tradable the right to receive shares in circulation, and in the process, could have caused the loss of tradable shares by the compensation of non-tradable shares. in the share reform, because the basic model with a non-tradable shares to tradable shares of bonus shares in the model, for example, 10 get 3, that is, non-tradable shares to tradable shares sent for every 10 shares held 3 shares. bonus shares, the non-tradable shares tradable shareholders is obtained. taking into account the non-tradable shares in circulation for a while stock shares to be the right to market pressure, so regulators also promulgated under the creeping flow of months later, negotiable 10%, 36 months later, only 100% of the circulation. which holds more than 5% of total share capital of non-tradable shares are called , is called month beginning the end of 2006, more than 1360 listed companies in addition more than 100, the basic practice finished. from the company's overall shares changed situation, while stock shares in, due to can not immediately sell the shares outstanding and, therefore, the overall stock market rose for the broader market, even Mogao to 6,000 points. But with the arrival of lifting the ban on ;, causing great pressure on the market.
2, on the period, that is three years from the date of listing before circulation. The sale of shares in circulation privileges are called Listing can be in circulation a year later, only one year lock-up period. This sale of shares in circulation privileges are called In May 2006 new from the old rear generated. the so-called new from the old is May 18, 2006 is limited, after which new listings are all negotiable company, has been split share structure problem does not exist . That is, once a year or three-year lockup period ended, these stocks do not have to divert investors through the stock bonus issue, will automatically flow. Therefore, investors buy such stocks, you should consider this risk. For example, circulation in the context of overseas stock IPO, the price-earnings ratio is usually between 8-12 times, the price is relatively low. However, the stock market in the stock reform of the old and new program off, the issue of 298 shares, issued up to 30 times the average price-earnings ratio , up to 99 times the China Ocean, than actually tradable shares issued during the price-earnings ratio is also high. The reason lies with our From May 18, 2006 is already starting to buy shares tradable shares, and must be taken into account when buying it for a year or three years will automatically run the risk, not to be such a high subscription prices in the primary market and secondary market trading. but because of the almost no publicity, resulting in poor investors are still unconsciously when share-trading by buying stocks thinking.
3, ; size limit rear, the 298 newly issued stocks, because, like finance, oil and coal are more large-cap stocks, Non-Zuojia shares, which investors in the market and more than ten dollars or even tens of dollars in sharp contrast IPO price. Even if the stock market Diedao 1,000 points, br> So far, the lifting of the The more urgent, the market felt down in the large. so this is the stock market the most important reason not lift their heads.
1.18 trillion whether the restricted shares will out in the real world, but investors consider investment risk is such thinking, because in reality there the possibility of them out. If we fall in the stock market situation is so simple and down come the more the stock market, you are not out of restricted shares, and produce the The main contradiction stock prices, then we can not find effective countermeasures to solve this problem,
six, the price reduction of major shareholders to resolve self-locking pressure of restricted shares
zero-cost model if we can come to the current the stock market down the main contradiction is the coupons, or repurchase capital injection, are not the right prescription. China's stock market not because of lack of confidence due to lack of money, but the policy has resulted in lack of confidence. Therefore, the current stability in the key Chinese stock market is to address the ; size limit a problem not be far behind. because from a subjective point of view, China's stock market parties, whether regulators or shareholders, whether it is a major shareholder of listed companies or securities firms and other intermediary agencies are looking to achieve increases in the stock market the win. but from an objective point of view, whether it is China's national economy from the macro side, or the performance of listed companies from the micro side, the stock market are rising with the external environment and internal conditions.
Specifically: by major shareholders lifting of the ban on the Restricted Shares may be in circulation after the reserve price for the lock on a voluntary basis, to issue restricted shares of the risk from a simple time delay locks, lock the price adjusted to completely resolve.
1, what is the price reduction of major shareholders self-locking. the so-called voluntary price lock, is defined by major shareholders of listed companies, voluntary ban of non-tradable shares held by the price reduction can be locked in a default on the flow reserve price. This price is defined by its major shareholders default of a minimum price negotiable, and its share price held above this level can only sell, but lower than the price of its shares will be automatically locked and no longer sold. This price can be listed under the Company facts and with reference to the broader market in 3000-5000 points to determine the company's stock price. Suppose a company's major shareholders can be self-locking flow reserve price set at 15 yuan, that is, shares held by only 15 yuan or more to sell. If Because of its sale, the stock fell to 15 yuan, will be automatically locked.
2, reduction of prices of major shareholders from the lock program
(1) large shareholders can be self-locking motion flow reserve price. From company, legally speaking, any more than 5% of the shareholders of the motion can be made in accordance with legal procedures related party transactions to vote, and this motion is sponsored by the self-restraint, it is consistent with minority shareholders and the company's interests and No worries of being rejected, and no legal obstacles.
(2) the motion is passed, to public disclosure in the media, the major shareholder of the voluntary reserve price negotiable lock made public, and shareholders of the motion its other motion, once adopted, should be observed. At the same time to check the implementation of the two exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
(3) If the company's future occurrence of bonus issue and share transfer, which can be a corresponding ex-dividend distribution under the reserve price shift.
this motion should be initiated by the major shareholder, made a voluntary win-win for the realization of Gushi's. which is the major shareholder of the core price of the voluntary lock.
3, corresponding measures
specific approach may be to: take full advantage of the characteristics of listed companies in China due to the dominance, nearly 860 state-owned listed companies initiated by the SAC to support the major shareholders of listed companies tradable upset the self-locking. while others may be more than 800 listed companies from the private Securities Industry Association to promote a unified and coordinated. China Securities Regulatory Commission in the process only for those who can flow through the major shareholders of listed companies reserve the motion of the priority given to refinancing.
4, the implementation of the major shareholders of listed companies feasibility
the current level of China's stock market fell to the present, not only loss of function of the stock market, and the function of the refinancing of listed companies, value-added functions can not be achieved. This is a multi-lose situation. from the author and ten Several major shareholders of listed companies access to view, can flow through the reserve price they are willing to self-locking to the market investors clearly this information, discourage non-tradable shares in circulation at any time out of concern, to achieve its share price rise. Again, many listed companies The manager is confident his company, but under the current inventory of spaces, can not do anything. Therefore, if a little guidance, the parties will be able to reach a consensus on this issue, because it is consistent with the common interests. can flow reserve price can be achieved. At present some companies have already enacted their own similar information, but did not effect the formation of groups, the overall decline in the broader market, the voice was faint and did not play a role.
5, which practices and share reform is not a thing to promote such a reform measures
need to do two shows: first, the listed company may not flow reserve price is the second self-locking share reform. First, the voluntary measures proposed by major shareholders There is no problem of mandatory government departments. Second, to determine the reserve price is negotiable by the major shareholders of listed companies according to their own situation in 3000 points to 5000 points made voluntary, not an externally imposed, uniform the price of provisions. negotiable base prices too low, the stock price will be low; can flow reserve price set too high, its shares will be high. because not the point, no investors on holdings of major shareholders of the company's concerns. Second, the largest shareholder base price negotiable price of self-locking is a constraint, rather than the kind of group behavior, rather than individual behavior, then, is to resolve the systematic risk of shares, boost market confidence.
6, introduced the measure of time is the key to the stock market a year
decline, although its negative effects have begun to emerge in the listed company, but the overall look of the macroeconomic performance of surface and surface micro-listed companies have not gone bad, and implementation of our major shareholders by adjusting the flow of the reserve price can be self-locking measures, but also can play a role. If until next year, the market and listed companies into a vicious cycle once, even if there are good measures, it will return to days without surgery. Therefore, our fourth quarter of this year through policy measures to reverse the continuing downturn in Stock key.
seven different ships Xiangbang, the war of choice we have to perform in Hong Kong
responsible big country, but also commitment and developed countries tide over the crisis, an innovative way of thinking, that is, first the general decline in world capital markets, the process of , look for a favorable spot. it can take the rise of capital markets recovery mission. and this, to China, the choice of the war, the most suitable location is in Hong Kong.
60% of the listed Hong Kong market market capitalization are from the mainland H shares and red chips companies, Hong Kong's economy supported mainly by the Mainland, but in the financial system, monetary system is entirely in Hong Kong and the United States currency, financial system integration. If in the Mainland market is relatively more independent in the context of the credit crisis still had a greater negative impact, it is mainly passed over from Hong Kong. So, invigorate the Hong Kong pawn, can drive the United States and other countries outside of the capital markets, internal to and A shares have a positive interaction, rather than through the piping, the risk of transmission to the outside to inside.
specific approach allows CIC strategic focus from U.S. to Hong Kong, Hong Kong to hold the forward positions, with to absorb excess foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong H shares, from Weiweijiuzhao purposes. Now if China in the international capital markets for investment in any location, will have a Buffett effect, the Chinese shot, and can inspire the confidence of the world. bridgehead for occupation of Hong Kong, We both assumed the responsibility of great powers, the United States agreed to hand Xiangbang, but also realized the stone carving of four purposes: first, to buy H shares, to resolve the risk of excessive foreign exchange reserves. Second, this time to buy has great investment value H-shares, throwing dollars, to buy back their own shares to hedge the basis of industry, but also their value. Third, the Hong Kong market outreach United States, mainland China within the Union. We invest in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong driven up to be equal to outside the United States to help. Fourth, Hong Kong H shares to A shares have a positive role in boosting, to hold this bridgehead to block the outside world into financial crisis, the panic in Mainland China, will lead to loss of confidence in the channel. < br> buy H shares of the capital markets from Hong Kong to overseas capital markets passing shot Xiangbang initiatives. Externally, you can pull the recovery in overseas markets, after all, the sinking in the world have a place in the capital markets --- Hong Kong, there have been hope. domestic A-share market is not only no longer passed to the negative impact of U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the recovery of H shares also rose to lead A shares. fight the battle of Hong Kong to make an inventory taken an important step in the overall .
short, grasp this great opportunity to make the historic rise of China is the key to activate the mainland A share market and bought back a . discipline. Peng. in. countries. certificate. securities. Report
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