Dilemma, which is the current round of global financial crisis, the first peak in the spring of .2010 Greek sovereign credit crisis means the risk of the private financial sector to the transfer of sovereign states, which is the current round of global financial crisis, the second climax. in Greece sovereign credit before the crisis, there were optimists believe that the global financial crisis has settled, the world's major exit strategy will be implemented soon, the world economy will usher in a new round of re-growth. However, the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis clear that the destruction of the current round of global financial crisis, both the intensity and duration far exceeding market expectations. The crisis is continuing in, or into the post-crisis era, which in itself remains controversial. Even though we have entered a post-crisis era, which will also be a time full of uncertainty.
first major uncertainty is how the crisis will expand and spread. Although the United States, Goldman Sachs also fights chatter Event, but after all the U.S. financial the lowest point the market is over. the crisis center has been transferred to the euro by the United States. Although the EU and the IMF jointly launched 750,000,000,000 euros rescue plan, but the focus of the rescue package is not let through the implementation of debt restructuring with creditor debtor countries shared the loss, but through loans to help debtor countries to fulfill their obligations. In order to ensure that the debtor can repay loans crisis, the plan inevitably requires debtor countries to implement painful fiscal consolidation, which will not only lead to social unrest debtor countries, and may exacerbate the debt burden of debtor countries future. Thus, the plan may only be postponed to the debt crisis of the future from now.
Therefore, if rescue is not a significant change in strategy, 750 billion euros and could not pull the vitality and the European sovereign debt crisis down in both the European sovereign debt crisis will continue to expand or even upgrade. the future from the debt crisis may be passed to Portugal, Greece, Ireland and other countries. In fact, in addition to European pig five foreign countries, in Britain outside the euro area may be the next round of crisis in the country. Britain has a serious budget deficit and government debt pigs, no less than five countries in Europe, in addition, transition to reliance on the financial industry, the British economy, and the crisis in the financial sector hit the grave. After the launch of the British general election Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition cabinet, while the coalition government, the biggest drawback is that difficult to launch a thorough, large-scale adjustment plan, which will be difficult to simply slide into crisis in the United Kingdom from the track to get out. Once the euro zone and Britain's sovereign debt crisis continues to deepen, so hard to stay out of the United States. In fact, the U.S. also has a serious budget deficit and government debt. The advantages of the United States dollar is the world's reserve currency, the United States can create inflation and depreciation of the dollar to out of the crisis. However, this means the crisis will seriously damage the international reputation of U.S. dollars.
Finally, the current global financial crisis will not end in the developed countries. since September 2008 since the collapse of Lehman Brothers to the major developed countries led by the Fed's monetary authorities have implemented a policy of quantitative easing an unprecedented effort, the collective into a lot of liquidity to the market .2010 since the crisis began in spring of Greece, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to re-launch large-scale quantitative easing policy, again to inject liquidity into the global financial system. a lot of liquidity from 2009 until now flows to emerging markets from developed countries, so many emerging market countries in 2009 appears more serious asset price bubble. However, once the next countries to exit loose monetary collective policy, especially if the Federal Reserve into raising interest rates, global liquidity flows will be reversed, returning from emerging markets in developed countries. This will undoubtedly result in asset prices in emerging markets bubble burst, the face of capital flight, currency devaluation faced pressure increasing foreign debt burden, which the outbreak of currency crises and debt crises. This crisis and the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis are very similar. In short, despite the current global financial crisis to the outbreak of the international monetary system at the core of the developed countries, But in the end may end to the periphery of the international monetary system in the country.
second major uncertainty is whether the world economy, the second bottom, and when the real world implementation of an exit strategy. As for the second probe end of problem, the key is to look at how to define dropped significantly, then the second bottom marked increase in the likelihood. After all, the U.S. unemployment rate is high, bank credit malaise, dynamic private sector consumption and investment remained weak. whether the government stimulus plan, or an enterprise re- inventory of, it can not support sustained economic rebound. EU's main problem is the lack of new economic growth point, the aging population makes unsustainable social security system, rigid labor market caused by chronically high unemployment. The Japanese economy is still not able up to two years completely out of recession, with the decline in the long process of struggle, the Japanese government has run out of space for fiscal and monetary policy.
short, despite the emerging markets and resources in the exporting country can maintain high growth in 2010, but this year may be lower than the IMF world economic growth forecast of 4% before. Although Australia, India and a few other countries have begun to enter the interest rate cycle, but not the world's major developed countries before 2011 collective implementation of an exit policy. of great uncertainty in the post-crisis era, cautious, wait and wait and see policy seems to have become a circle and humane policy.
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